Over 2.5 missed ✗ · Confidence 65%
👀 Alternative: Away team under 1.5 goals · 62% ✓ (not in the main record)
SharpBet prediction for Aarhus vs SC Braga. Main pick — Over 2.5 (confidence 65%). Aarhus recently scores 1.90 and concedes 1.10 per game (xG 1.40). SC Braga — 1.10 scored, 1.30 conceded (xG 1.58). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 2.6. Form edge to Aarhus. SC Braga sit 10 places higher in the table.
| Metric | Aarhus | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 1.90 | 1.10 |
| Concedes | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| xG | 1.40 | 1.58 |
| xGA | 1.56 | 0.66 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% |
| BTTS | 70% | 40% |
| Pts/game | 1.80 | 1.10 |
Aarhus — 26 of 36, 1 pts from 2 games, goals 1:2, form D-L. SC Braga — 16 of 36, 3 pts from 2 games, goals 2:3, form W-L (Conference League places).
For our pick (Over 2.5) the average price is 1.98, best 2.02. That price implies about 51%, our estimate is 65%. We see an edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.70 | 3.91 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.50 |
| Away | 2.00 | 2.09 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.98 | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 1.82 | 1.85 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.78 | 1.80 |
| BTTS — no | 1.94 | 2.00 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5, 65% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.98, best 2.02 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 2.6 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
By points per game the edge is with Aarhus.