Over 2.5 missed ✗ · Confidence 65%
👀 Alternative: Corners under 9.5 · 61% ✓ (not in the main record)
SharpBet prediction for Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva. Main pick — Over 2.5 (confidence 65%). Akhmat recently scores 0.70 and concedes 1.60 per game (xG 0.64). Rodina Moskva — 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (xG 1.51). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 3.2. Form edge to Rodina Moskva.
| Metric | Akhmat | Rodina Moskva |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| Concedes | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xG | 0.64 | 1.51 |
| xGA | 2.54 | 1.81 |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% |
| BTTS | 40% | 80% |
| Pts/game | 0.60 | 1.10 |
Akhmat — 15 of 16, 11 pts from 13 games, goals 15:19, form L-L-L-D-L (relegation zone). Rodina Moskva — 12 of 16, 12 pts from 13 games, goals 15:28, form W-W-D-L-D.
Akhmat at home in this competition: 1.80 scored, 1.50 conceded on average. Rodina Moskva away: 0.70 scored, 2.00 conceded.
Top scorers in this competition (goals): Akhmat: L. Sadulaev (3); Rodina Moskva: A. Maksimenko (3).
For our pick (Over 2.5) the average price is 1.66, best 1.70. That price implies about 60%, our estimate is 65%. We see an edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 1.82 |
| Draw | 4.02 | 4.26 |
| Away | 4.22 | 4.36 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.66 | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 2.29 | 2.35 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.61 | 1.61 |
| BTTS — no | 2.19 | 2.20 |
Odds from 5 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5, 65% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.66, best 1.70 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 3.2 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
By points per game the edge is with Rodina Moskva.
Teams: Akhmat · Rodina Moskva