Alverca win or draw (1X) hit ✓ · Confidence 67%
👀 Alternative: Over 2.5 · 65% ✗ (not in the main record)
SharpBet prediction for Alverca vs Casa Pia. Main pick — Alverca win or draw (1X) (confidence 67%). Alverca recently scores 1.30 and concedes 1.40 per game (xG 1.80). Casa Pia — 0.60 scored, 1.80 conceded (xG 0.95). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 2.7. H2H average total is 3.67 goals. Alverca sit 7 places higher in the table.
| Metric | Alverca | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| Concedes | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xG | 1.80 | 0.95 |
| xGA | 1.09 | 1.49 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% |
| BTTS | 60% | 20% |
| Pts/game | 1.10 | 1.00 |
Alverca — 10 of 18, 11 pts from 10 games, goals 13:14, form L-L-W-W-W. Casa Pia — 17 of 18, 7 pts from 10 games, goals 5:19, form L-W-L-W-L (relegation zone).
Alverca at home in this competition: 1.00 scored, 1.20 conceded on average. Casa Pia away: 0.80 scored, 0.80 conceded.
Top scorers in this competition (goals): Alverca: Vivaldo Semedo (3).
For our pick (Alverca win or draw (1X)) the average price is 1.17, best 1.21. That price implies about 85%, our estimate is 67%. The market rates it higher than we do — the price is not attractive.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 1.76 |
| Draw | 3.67 | 3.90 |
| Away | 4.63 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.93 | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 1.87 | 1.91 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.85 | 1.91 |
| BTTS — no | 1.87 | 1.91 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Alverca win or draw (1X), 67% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.17, best 1.21 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 2.7 goals based on both teams' form and xG.