Over 2.5 hit ✓ · Confidence 76%
👀 Alternative: Home team over 1.5 goals · 62% ✓ (not in the main record)
Roma are 3rd in Serie A with 24 points from 10 games and a 28:10 goal record. Sassuolo are 17th on 8 points at 16:26. D. Malen has 8 goals for the hosts and M. Soulé has 3. Roma's last five read 2:3 against Manchester United, 5:2 against Udinese, 4:2 against Cagliari, 3:3 against Napoli and 4:0 against Slovan Bratislava. Sassuolo have lost four straight: 2:4 to Fiorentina, 2:6 to Lazio, 0:2 to Como and 2:4 to Frosinone.
We have Over 2.5 at 76%, with the model expecting about 3.89 goals. Form supports the pick here. Both went over in 7 of their last 10, with both teams scoring in 6 Roma games and 9 Sassuolo games. Roma average 2.7 scored and 1.6 conceded, and 2.8 and 1.0 at home in the league. Sassuolo concede 2.5 overall and, away in the league, score 1.2 and concede 2.4. Their opponents' average xG is 2.54. All of Roma's last five games went over.
The average price is 1.36, the best 1.38. That implies 73.5%, against our 76%, a gap of 2.5 points. There is no edge over the market: the good form for this total is already in the price. The main objection comes from the head-to-heads. Ten meetings average 2.7 goals, and only two of the last five went over: 2:0, 0:1, 1:0, 1:2 and 3:4. Sassuolo also create little themselves, with an average xG of 1.02 and 2.5 shots on target per game. Two of their last five finished with exactly two goals.
Roma over 1.5 goals at 62%, with the model expecting about 2.55 from the hosts. In their last four home games in our data they scored 4, 4, 2 and 3.
SharpBet prediction for AS Roma vs Sassuolo. Main pick — Over 2.5 (confidence 76%). AS Roma recently scores 2.70 and concedes 1.60 per game (xG 2.33). Sassuolo — 1.60 scored, 2.50 conceded (xG 1.02). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 4.2. Form edge to AS Roma. H2H average total is 2.70 goals. AS Roma sit 14 places higher in the table.
| Metric | AS Roma | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 2.70 | 1.60 |
| Concedes | 1.60 | 2.50 |
| xG | 2.33 | 1.02 |
| xGA | 2.44 | 2.54 |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% |
| BTTS | 60% | 90% |
| Pts/game | 1.80 | 0.90 |
AS Roma — 3 of 20, 24 pts from 10 games, goals 28:10, form W-W-D-W-D (Champions League places). Sassuolo — 17 of 20, 8 pts from 10 games, goals 16:26, form L-L-L-L-D.
AS Roma at home in this competition: 2.80 scored, 1.00 conceded on average. Sassuolo away: 1.20 scored, 2.40 conceded.
Top scorers in this competition (goals): AS Roma: D. Malen (8), M. Soulé (3).
For our pick (Over 2.5) the average price is 1.36, best 1.38. That price implies about 74%, our estimate is 76%. The estimates roughly match — no edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.31 | 1.35 |
| Draw | 5.88 | 6.38 |
| Away | 8.48 | 9.39 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.36 | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 3.04 | 3.22 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.63 | 1.67 |
| BTTS — no | 2.17 | 2.25 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5, 76% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.36, best 1.38 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 4.2 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
By points per game the edge is with AS Roma.