Over 2.5 hit ✓ · Confidence 76%
👀 Alternative: Home team over 1.5 goals · 62% ✓ (not in the main record)
SharpBet prediction for Benfica vs Lech Poznan. Main pick — Over 2.5 (confidence 76%). Benfica recently scores 2.70 and concedes 0.80 per game (xG 2.45). Lech Poznan — 2.30 scored, 1.70 conceded (xG 2.12). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 3.8. Form edge to Benfica. H2H average total is 5.00 goals. Benfica sit 31 places higher in the table.
| Metric | Benfica | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 2.70 | 2.30 |
| Concedes | 0.80 | 1.70 |
| xG | 2.45 | 2.12 |
| xGA | 1.13 | 1.81 |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% |
| BTTS | 60% | 70% |
| Pts/game | 2.70 | 1.70 |
Benfica — 1 of 36, 9 pts from 3 games, goals 10:2, form W-W-W (Europa League places). Lech Poznan — 32 of 36, 1 pts from 3 games, goals 1:9, form D-L-L.
Top scorers in this competition (goals): Benfica: V. Pavlidis (2).
For our pick (Over 2.5) the average price is 1.31, best 1.34. That price implies about 76%, our estimate is 76%. The estimates roughly match — no edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.15 | 1.17 |
| Draw | 7.85 | 8.60 |
| Away | 15.28 | 19.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.31 | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 3.29 | 3.40 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.92 | 1.98 |
| BTTS — no | 1.82 | 1.87 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5, 76% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.31, best 1.34 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 3.8 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
By points per game the edge is with Benfica.
Teams: Benfica · Lech Poznan