Over 2.5 hit ✓ · Confidence 65%
👀 Alternative: Home team under 1.5 goals · 62% ✓ (not in the main record)
SharpBet prediction for Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise. Main pick — Over 2.5 (confidence 65%). Celta Vigo recently scores 1.20 and concedes 1.00 per game (xG 1.12). Union St. Gilloise — 2.90 scored, 0.70 conceded (xG 1.84). The numbers point to a low-scoring game — expected total ≈ 2.4. Form edge to Union St. Gilloise. Union St. Gilloise sit 19 places higher in the table.
| Metric | Celta Vigo | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 1.20 | 2.90 |
| Concedes | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| xG | 1.12 | 1.84 |
| xGA | 0.97 | 0.78 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Pts/game | 1.30 | 2.60 |
Celta Vigo — 25 of 36, 3 pts from 3 games, goals 3:4, form W-L-L. Union St. Gilloise — 6 of 36, 7 pts from 3 games, goals 8:1, form W-D-W (Europa League places).
For our pick (Over 2.5) the average price is 1.69, best 1.73. That price implies about 59%, our estimate is 65%. We see an edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 2.30 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.78 |
| Away | 3.04 | 3.20 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.69 | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 2.16 | 2.22 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.56 | 1.60 |
| BTTS — no | 2.31 | 2.45 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5, 65% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.69, best 1.73 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 2.4 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
By points per game the edge is with Union St. Gilloise.
Teams: Celta Vigo · Union St. Gilloise