Under 2.5 missed ✗ · Confidence 65%
👀 Alternative: Home team under 1.5 goals · 62% ✓ (not in the main record)
SharpBet prediction for Fakel vs Dynamo. Main pick — Under 2.5 (confidence 65%). Fakel recently scores 0.80 and concedes 1.40 per game (xG 0.56). Dynamo — 1.90 scored, 1.00 conceded (xG 2.34). The numbers point to a low-scoring game — expected total ≈ 2.3. Form edge to Dynamo. H2H average total is 2.33 goals. Dynamo sit 14 places higher in the table.
| Metric | Fakel | Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 0.80 | 1.90 |
| Concedes | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xG | 0.56 | 2.34 |
| xGA | 0.97 | 0.75 |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% |
| BTTS | 30% | 60% |
| Pts/game | 1.10 | 2.40 |
Fakel — 16 of 16, 6 pts from 13 games, goals 8:21, form L-L-W-L-L (relegation zone). Dynamo — 2 of 16, 28 pts from 13 games, goals 21:12, form W-L-W-W-W.
Fakel at home in this competition: 0.40 scored, 1.60 conceded on average. Dynamo away: 1.20 scored, 1.30 conceded.
Top scorers in this competition (goals): Dynamo: K. Tyukavin (6), V. Okishor (3).
For our pick (Under 2.5) the average price is 1.97, best 2.04. That price implies about 51%, our estimate is 65%. We see an edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.03 | 5.38 |
| Draw | 3.93 | 4.20 |
| Away | 1.65 | 1.69 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.88 | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 1.97 | 2.04 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.81 | 1.81 |
| BTTS — no | 1.90 | 1.91 |
Odds from 5 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Under 2.5, 65% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.97, best 2.04 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 2.3 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
By points per game the edge is with Dynamo.