Over 2.5 Final — lineups confirmed · Confidence 65%
👀 Alternative: Corners under 9.5 · 61% (not in the main record)
SharpBet prediction for Le Mans vs Monaco. Main pick — Over 2.5 (confidence 65%). Le Mans recently scores 1.20 and concedes 2.00 per game (xG 0.98). Monaco — 1.60 scored, 1.00 conceded (xG 1.64). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 3.0. Form edge to Monaco. H2H average total is 3.25 goals. Monaco sit 10 places higher in the table.
| Metric | Le Mans | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Concedes | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG | 0.98 | 1.64 |
| xGA | 2.36 | 0.94 |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% |
| BTTS | 80% | 60% |
| Pts/game | 0.70 | 1.80 |
Le Mans — 17 of 18, 7 pts from 9 games, goals 11:18, form L-D-L-L-W (relegation zone). Monaco — 7 of 18, 15 pts from 9 games, goals 12:10, form L-D-L-D-W.
Le Mans at home in this competition: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded on average. Monaco away: 1.00 scored, 1.20 conceded.
Top scorers in this competition (goals): Le Mans: L. Mafouta (4), A. Bourabaa (3); Monaco: Paris Josua Brunner (4).
For our pick (Over 2.5) the average price is 1.88, best 1.96. That price implies about 53%, our estimate is 65%. We see an edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.09 | 5.51 |
| Draw | 3.91 | 4.16 |
| Away | 1.67 | 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.88 | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 1.94 | 2.00 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.82 | 1.85 |
| BTTS — no | 1.90 | 1.95 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5, 65% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.88, best 1.96 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 3.0 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
By points per game the edge is with Monaco.