Over 2.5 missed ✗ · Confidence 65%
👀 Alternative: Yellow cards over 3.5 · 59% ✓ (not in the main record)
Osasuna are 15th in La Liga with 11 points from 11 games and an 11:22 goal record. Athletic Club are 7th on 15 points from 10 games at 14:10. A. Budimir has 8 goals and Álex Berenguer leads Athletic with 4. Osasuna lost 1:2 to Deportivo La Coruna last time out, while Athletic beat Real Sociedad 2:1.
We have Over 2.5 at 65%, with the model expecting about 3.06 goals. The pick leans on xG: 1.84 for Osasuna and 1.92 for Athletic in recent games, comfortably above the line combined. Osasuna's defence is also soft, conceding 2.1 per game over their last 10 and allowing an xG of 1.69. Both have also posted big wins lately, 6:0 for Osasuna against Atletico Calatayud and 6:1 for Athletic against Prat. The over landed in 5 of Osasuna's last 10 and 5 of Athletic's last 9.
The average price is 2.12, the best 2.19. That implies 47.2%, against our 65%, a gap of almost 18 points. A gap that wide is a reason to doubt our number. The market rates the under as more likely, and the numbers explain why. At home in the league, Osasuna score 0.8 and concede 0.6, just 1.4 goals per game. Athletic score 0.8 and concede 1.3 away. Both are below the line, while those 6:0 and 6:1 wins lift the overall averages. Ten head-to-heads average 2.4 goals, and only two of the last five went over: 1:0, 1:1, 0:0, 2:3 and 1:2.
Over 3.5 yellow cards at 59%. The model expects about 4.5, from 3.25 per game for Osasuna and 1.25 for Athletic. Most of that comes from the hosts, and we have no prices for this line.
SharpBet prediction for Osasuna vs Athletic Club. Main pick — Over 2.5 (confidence 65%). Osasuna recently scores 1.50 and concedes 2.10 per game (xG 1.84). Athletic Club — 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (xG 1.92). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 3.3. Form edge to Athletic Club. H2H average total is 2.40 goals. Athletic Club sit 8 places higher in the table.
| Metric | Osasuna | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Concedes | 2.10 | 0.67 |
| xG | 1.84 | 1.92 |
| xGA | 1.69 | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 56% |
| BTTS | 40% | 44% |
| Pts/game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
Osasuna — 15 of 20, 11 pts from 11 games, goals 11:22, form L-L-W-L-D. Athletic Club — 7 of 20, 15 pts from 10 games, goals 14:10, form W-W-L-D-D.
Osasuna at home in this competition: 0.80 scored, 0.60 conceded on average. Athletic Club away: 0.80 scored, 1.30 conceded.
Top scorers in this competition (goals): Osasuna: A. Budimir (8); Athletic Club: Álex Berenguer (4).
For our pick (Over 2.5) the average price is 2.12, best 2.19. That price implies about 47%, our estimate is 65%. We see an edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.52 | 3.66 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.58 |
| Away | 2.10 | 2.18 |
| Over 2.5 | 2.12 | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 1.75 | 1.81 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.86 | 1.95 |
| BTTS — no | 1.87 | 1.91 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5, 65% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 2.12, best 2.19 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 3.3 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
By points per game the edge is with Athletic Club.
Teams: Osasuna · Athletic Club