Over 2.5 goals hit ✓ · Confidence 74%
👀 Alternative: Home team over 1.5 goals · 62% ✓ (not in the main record)
Both sides play open, leaky football: Augsburg concedes 1.9 per game with Over 2.5 hitting in 90% of matches, while Leipzig scores 2.4 but ships 1.6 themselves. H2H backs this up with a 3.7 average total. Main risk is Leipzig controlling the game more conservatively at home against a weaker side, but the underlying numbers from both teams are strong enough to trust the over.
SharpBet prediction for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg. Main pick — Over 2.5 goals (confidence 74%). RB Leipzig recently scores 2.40 and concedes 1.60 per game (xG 2.34). FC Augsburg — 2.40 scored, 1.90 conceded (xG 2.22). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 3.8. Form edge to RB Leipzig. H2H average total is 3.70 goals. RB Leipzig sit 7 places higher in the table.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Concedes | 1.60 | 1.90 |
| xG | 2.34 | 2.22 |
| xGA | 1.25 | 1.81 |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% |
| BTTS | 40% | 90% |
| Pts/game | 1.80 | 1.30 |
RB Leipzig — 4 of 18, 15 pts from 8 games, goals 22:11, form W-W-L-W-L (Champions League places). FC Augsburg — 11 of 18, 9 pts from 8 games, goals 18:15, form L-D-L-D-L.
RB Leipzig at home in this competition: 4.50 scored, 0.00 conceded on average. FC Augsburg away: 3.00 scored, 2.70 conceded.
Top scorers in this competition (goals): RB Leipzig: C. Nkunku (4), Rômulo (4); FC Augsburg: M. Gregoritsch (5).
For our pick (Over 2.5 goals) the average price is 1.24, best 1.27. That price implies about 81%, our estimate is 74%. The market rates it higher than we do — the price is not attractive.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 1.50 |
| Draw | 5.35 | 5.60 |
| Away | 5.92 | 6.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.24 | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 3.96 | 4.20 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.36 | 1.39 |
| BTTS — no | 2.95 | 3.10 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5 goals, 74% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.24, best 1.27 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 3.8 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
By points per game the edge is with RB Leipzig.
Teams: RB Leipzig · FC Augsburg