Over 2.5 missed ✗ · Confidence 65%
👀 Alternative: Home team over 1.5 goals · 62% ✗ (not in the main record)
SharpBet prediction for Riga vs FK Jablonec. Main pick — Over 2.5 (confidence 65%). Riga recently scores 1.70 and concedes 0.80 per game (xG 2.45). FK Jablonec — 1.20 scored, 1.50 conceded (xG 1.62). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 3.3. Form edge to Riga.
| Metric | Riga | FK Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 1.70 | 1.20 |
| Concedes | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| xG | 2.45 | 1.62 |
| xGA | 0.73 | 1.76 |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% |
| BTTS | 60% | 40% |
| Pts/game | 2.20 | 1.40 |
Riga — 21 of 36, 2 pts from 2 games, goals 2:2, form D-D (Conference League places). FK Jablonec — 24 of 36, 1 pts from 2 games, goals 2:3, form D-L (Conference League places).
For our pick (Over 2.5) the average price is 1.90, best 1.97. That price implies about 53%, our estimate is 65%. We see an edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 2.40 |
| Draw | 3.33 | 3.50 |
| Away | 2.95 | 3.15 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.90 | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 1.89 | 1.94 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.69 | 1.73 |
| BTTS — no | 2.05 | 2.15 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5, 65% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.90, best 1.97 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 3.3 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
By points per game the edge is with Riga.
Teams: Riga · FK Jablonec