Over 2.5 missed ✗ · Confidence 65%
👀 Alternative: Corners under 9.5 · 61% ✓ (not in the main record)
Sevilla are 6th in La Liga with 17 points from 11 games and a 17:19 goal record. Alaves are 11th on 12 points at 15:17, with two real scoring threats in L. Boyé (5 goals) and M. Díaz (4). Neither side is in good shape. Sevilla's recent run includes 1:3 at the hands of Getafe and 1:4 to Real Madrid, alongside 2:0 against Osasuna and 3:3 with Levante. Alaves lost 1:6 to Barcelona and 1:2 to both Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid.
Our call is Over 2.5 at 65%, with the model expecting about 2.93 goals. These teams concede plenty: Sevilla's 11 league games have produced 36 goals and Alaves's 32, roughly 3.3 and 2.9 per game. Recent games went over 2.5 at a rate of 60% for Sevilla and 56% for Alaves, with both teams scoring in 60% and 67%. Alaves concede 2.2 per away league game, and Sevilla score 1.4 at home. The last 10 meetings average 2.8 goals, with both sides scoring in 70%.
Over 2.5 averages 2.21, with the best price 2.28. That implies just 45.2% against our 65%, a gap of nearly 20 points. A gap this wide is more a reason to doubt our number than to celebrate value, because the market has Under 2.5 as the favourite at an average of 1.68. It has a case. Only two of the last five meetings had more than two goals, combined xG (1.22 and 1.16) falls short of 2.5, and Alaves score just 0.8 per away game.
Corners under 9.5 at 61%. The model expects about 6.9 corners, with Sevilla averaging 3.25 per game and Alaves 3.5.
SharpBet prediction for Sevilla vs Alaves. Main pick — Over 2.5 (confidence 65%). Sevilla recently scores 1.50 and concedes 1.70 per game (xG 1.22). Alaves — 1.22 scored, 1.78 conceded (xG 1.16). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 2.8. Form edge to Sevilla. H2H average total is 2.80 goals. Sevilla sit 5 places higher in the table.
| Metric | Sevilla | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 1.50 | 1.22 |
| Concedes | 1.70 | 1.78 |
| xG | 1.22 | 1.16 |
| xGA | 1.59 | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 56% |
| BTTS | 60% | 67% |
| Pts/game | 1.40 | 0.89 |
Sevilla — 6 of 20, 17 pts from 11 games, goals 17:19, form L-W-L-D-L (Conference League places). Alaves — 11 of 20, 12 pts from 11 games, goals 15:17, form L-D-L-L-D.
Sevilla at home in this competition: 1.40 scored, 1.40 conceded on average. Alaves away: 0.80 scored, 2.20 conceded.
Top scorers in this competition (goals): Alaves: L. Boyé (5), M. Díaz (4).
For our pick (Over 2.5) the average price is 2.21, best 2.28. That price implies about 45%, our estimate is 65%. We see an edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 2.05 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.50 |
| Away | 4.07 | 4.26 |
| Over 2.5 | 2.21 | 2.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 1.68 | 1.73 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.93 | 1.95 |
| BTTS — no | 1.80 | 1.85 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5, 65% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 2.21, best 2.28 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 2.8 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
By points per game the edge is with Sevilla.