Over 2.5 hit ✓ · Confidence 65%
👀 Alternative: Corners over 9.5 · 61% ✗ (not in the main record)
Standard Liege are 9th in the Belgian top flight with 12 points from 10 games and a 15:16 goal record. Beveren are 12th on 10 points with a weaker defence at 13:20. D. Eckert Ayensa (4) and A. Abid (3) lead the scoring for the hosts, C. Lokesa has 5 for the visitors. Standard have gone two without a win: 1:1 at home to Kortrijk and 1:2 at Genk. Beveren lost 1:2 at home to Union St. Gilloise.
Our call is Over 2.5 at 65%, with the model expecting about 2.95 goals. Beveren are the main reason: 7 of their last 10 went over 2.5, they concede 1.8 on average, and on the road in the league they let in 3.0 while scoring 1.0. The head-to-heads agree, with 3.1 goals per game across 10 meetings and both teams scoring in 7. Four of the last five (1:2, 3:1, 1:2, 2:1, 2:0) went over 2.5.
Over 2.5 averages 1.64, best 1.67. That implies 61% against our 65%, a gap of about 4 points. The edge against the market is minimal, and a small price move would wipe it out. Standard's form doesn't help, as only 4 of their last 10 went over 2.5 and their home averages (1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded) add up to just 2.0. Both teams scored in only 3 of Beveren's last 10, so their high-scoring games are often one-sided. Combined xG (1.45 and 0.93) comes to 2.38, below both the line and the model's expectation.
Corners over 9.5 at 61%, with the model expecting about 11.9. Standard average 6.0 won and 7.0 conceded, Beveren 7.25 and 3.5. We have no corner prices, so this can't be checked against the market.
SharpBet prediction for Standard Liege vs SK Beveren. Main pick — Over 2.5 (confidence 65%). Standard Liege recently scores 1.20 and concedes 1.30 per game (xG 1.45). SK Beveren — 1.50 scored, 1.80 conceded (xG 0.93). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 2.9. H2H average total is 3.10 goals.
| Metric | Standard Liege | SK Beveren |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Concedes | 1.30 | 1.80 |
| xG | 1.45 | 0.93 |
| xGA | 1.80 | 1.66 |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% |
| BTTS | 50% | 30% |
| Pts/game | 1.30 | 1.30 |
Standard Liege — 9 of 18, 12 pts from 10 games, goals 15:16, form D-L-L-L-L. SK Beveren — 12 of 18, 10 pts from 10 games, goals 13:20, form L-D-L-L-W.
Standard Liege at home in this competition: 1.20 scored, 0.80 conceded on average. SK Beveren away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded.
Top scorers in this competition (goals): Standard Liege: D. Eckert Ayensa (4), A. Abid (3); SK Beveren: C. Lokesa (5).
For our pick (Over 2.5) the average price is 1.64, best 1.67. That price implies about 61%, our estimate is 65%. We see an edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 1.85 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Away | 3.89 | 4.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.64 | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 2.22 | 2.28 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.58 | 1.62 |
| BTTS — no | 2.25 | 2.30 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5, 65% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.64, best 1.67 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 2.9 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
Teams: Standard Liege · SK Beveren