Over 2.5 hit ✓ · Confidence 65%
👀 Alternative: Away team under 1.5 goals · 62% ✗ (not in the main record)
SharpBet prediction for Sturm Graz vs Celje. Main pick — Over 2.5 (confidence 65%). Sturm Graz recently scores 1.70 and concedes 1.40 per game (xG 2.23). Celje — 1.10 scored, 1.00 conceded (xG 1.13). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 3.1. Sturm Graz sit 10 places higher in the table.
| Metric | Sturm Graz | Celje |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 1.70 | 1.10 |
| Concedes | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xG | 2.23 | 1.13 |
| xGA | 0.96 | 1.92 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| BTTS | 50% | 30% |
| Pts/game | 1.50 | 1.30 |
Sturm Graz — 19 of 36, 4 pts from 3 games, goals 1:3, form W-L-D (Europa League places). Celje — 29 of 36, 1 pts from 3 games, goals 2:7, form D-L-L.
For our pick (Over 2.5) the average price is 1.57, best 1.61. That price implies about 64%, our estimate is 65%. The estimates roughly match — no edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 1.58 |
| Draw | 4.35 | 4.60 |
| Away | 5.47 | 5.75 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.57 | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 2.39 | 2.45 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.65 | 1.67 |
| BTTS — no | 2.16 | 2.20 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5, 65% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.57, best 1.61 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 3.1 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
Teams: Sturm Graz · Celje