Over 2.5 Final — lineups confirmed · Confidence 69%
👀 Alternative: Red Bull Salzburg win or draw (X2) · 60% (not in the main record)
SharpBet prediction for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg. Main pick — Over 2.5 (confidence 69%). Sturm Graz recently scores 1.90 and concedes 1.70 per game (xG 2.17). Red Bull Salzburg — 2.00 scored, 1.40 conceded (xG 2.13). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 3.6. H2H average total is 3.30 goals.
| Metric | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 1.90 | 2.00 |
| Concedes | 1.70 | 1.40 |
| xG | 2.17 | 2.13 |
| xGA | 1.14 | 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% |
| BTTS | 60% | 50% |
| Pts/game | 1.40 | 1.70 |
Sturm Graz — 4 of 12, 19 pts from 11 games, goals 19:13, form D-D-W-W-L (promotion places). Red Bull Salzburg — 2 of 12, 27 pts from 11 games, goals 29:6, form W-W-W-D-W (promotion places).
Sturm Graz at home in this competition: 2.40 scored, 1.00 conceded on average. Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.60 scored, 0.60 conceded.
Top scorers in this competition (goals): Sturm Graz: O. Diakité (7); Red Bull Salzburg: H. Tabaković (7), K. Konaté (4).
For our pick (Over 2.5) the average price is 1.40, best 1.44. That price implies about 71%, our estimate is 69%. The estimates roughly match — no edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 2.80 |
| Draw | 3.84 | 4.09 |
| Away | 2.25 | 2.37 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.40 | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 2.76 | 2.91 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.36 | 1.40 |
| BTTS — no | 2.89 | 3.00 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5, 69% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.40, best 1.44 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 3.6 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
Teams: Sturm Graz · Red Bull Salzburg