Over 2.5 hit ✓ · Confidence 65%
👀 Alternative: Yellow cards under 3.5 · 59% ✓ (not in the main record)
This is a meeting of two Serie A strugglers. Venezia are bottom in 20th with 3 points from 10 games and a 6:20 goal record. Udinese are 19th on 5 points at 11:23. Both sit in the relegation zone and neither is playing well. Venezia have four defeats in their last five (Como, Inter, Genoa, Atalanta), and their only win was 1:0 over Napoli. Udinese have no wins in that stretch at all: 2:5 to Roma, 0:2 to Milan, 0:3 to Lecce, 1:2 to Torino and 0:0 with Parma.
Our call is Over 2.5 at 65%, with the model expecting about 3.29 goals. The case rests on the defending. Udinese concede 2.3 per away league game with 2.77 xGA, and Venezia concede 2.0 at home with 1.7 xGA. Udinese also score 1.8 per away game. Head-to-head points the same way: all five meetings in our data had more than two goals, averaging 3.8, with both sides scoring in 80%.
Over 2.5 averages 1.72, with the best price 1.76. That implies 58.1% against our 65%, a gap of about 7 points. The weak spot is Venezia's attack: 0.6 goals per home game and no goals at all in three of their last five. Only 40% of their games went over 2.5, and both teams scored in the same 40%. Combined xG (1.17 and 1.09) sits below the line. If Venezia draw another blank, the over depends almost entirely on Udinese, whose own games went over 2.5 in 60% of cases.
Yellow cards under 3.5 at 59%. The model expects about 2.2, with Venezia averaging 1.0 per game and Udinese 1.25.
SharpBet prediction for Venezia vs Udinese. Main pick — Over 2.5 (confidence 65%). Venezia recently scores 0.70 and concedes 2.00 per game (xG 1.17). Udinese — 1.00 scored, 2.20 conceded (xG 1.09). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 3.4. H2H average total is 3.80 goals.
| Metric | Venezia | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| Concedes | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xG | 1.17 | 1.09 |
| xGA | 1.70 | 2.77 |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| BTTS | 40% | 60% |
| Pts/game | 0.30 | 0.50 |
Venezia — 20 of 20, 3 pts from 10 games, goals 6:20, form L-L-L-W-L (relegation zone). Udinese — 19 of 20, 5 pts from 10 games, goals 11:23, form L-D-L-L-L (relegation zone).
Venezia at home in this competition: 0.60 scored, 2.00 conceded on average. Udinese away: 1.80 scored, 2.30 conceded.
For our pick (Over 2.5) the average price is 1.72, best 1.76. That price implies about 58%, our estimate is 65%. We see an edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 2.22 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.78 |
| Away | 3.17 | 3.32 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.72 | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 2.15 | 2.24 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.57 | 1.60 |
| BTTS — no | 2.27 | 2.30 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5, 65% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.72, best 1.76 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 3.4 goals based on both teams' form and xG.