Over 2.5 goals Final — lineups confirmed · Confidence 74%
👀 Alternative: FC Thun win or draw (1X) · 67% (not in the main record)
Thun and Basel both post poor defensive numbers, conceding 2.1 and 2.5 per game respectively, while both remain capable going forward. The Over 2.5 signal fits the open, high-scoring pattern from both sides, and H2H data backs it up with a 3.3 average total. Main risk is Basel's inconsistency, including a scoreless draw recently, but the overall goal-fest trend outweighs that. Over 2.5 looks more reliable than backing Thun not to lose given their shaky defense.
SharpBet prediction for FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893. Main pick — Over 2.5 goals (confidence 74%). FC Thun recently scores 2.00 and concedes 2.10 per game (xG 1.99). FC Basel 1893 — 1.70 scored, 2.50 conceded (xG 1.05). The numbers point to a high-scoring game — expected total ≈ 3.2. Form edge to FC Thun. H2H average total is 3.30 goals.
| Metric | FC Thun | FC Basel 1893 |
|---|---|---|
| Scores | 2.00 | 1.70 |
| Concedes | 2.10 | 2.50 |
| xG | 1.99 | 1.05 |
| xGA | 1.57 | 1.79 |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% |
| BTTS | 70% | 70% |
| Pts/game | 1.30 | 0.80 |
FC Thun — 9 of 12, 13 pts from 12 games, goals 24:34, form W-L-L-W-L (relegation zone). FC Basel 1893 — 7 of 12, 14 pts from 12 games, goals 18:22, form L-D-L-L-W (relegation zone).
FC Thun at home in this competition: 0.80 scored, 2.80 conceded on average. FC Basel 1893 away: 1.80 scored, 1.80 conceded.
Top scorers in this competition (goals): FC Thun: B. Labeau (5); FC Basel 1893: Ž. Celar (6).
For our pick (Over 2.5 goals) the average price is 1.37, best 1.41. That price implies about 73%, our estimate is 74%. The estimates roughly match — no edge over the market.
| Outcome | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 2.18 |
| Draw | 3.86 | 4.12 |
| Away | 2.92 | 3.04 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.37 | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 2.86 | 3.01 |
| BTTS — yes | 1.35 | 1.37 |
| BTTS — no | 2.97 | 3.20 |
Odds from 10 bookmakers at the time of the pick; the line may move before kick-off.
SharpBet's main pick is Over 2.5 goals, 74% confidence.
Average price across bookmakers is 1.37, best 1.41 at the time of the pick.
Expected total ≈ 3.2 goals based on both teams' form and xG.
By points per game the edge is with FC Thun.
Teams: FC Thun · FC Basel 1893